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Islamic State in India – Myth or Reality?

  In one of largest counter-terrorist operations in the history of India, the National Investigation Agency swooped in and arrested 14 Islamic State operatives and sympathizers across India on January 22 and 23. Though there are conflicting reports as to the exact number of arrests made and their detention status, some sketchy details have been […]

Echoes of Nixon in the US-Iran Rapprochement

  On July 14, 2015, Iran and six world powers known as the P5 +1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany) reached a historical nuclear deal that limited Iran’s nuclear program and provided for enhanced monitoring in exchange for relief from nuclear sanctions. Prior to that, for more than two […]

Climate Monitor: Drought and the Syrian Civil War

Climate Monitor: Drought and the Syrian Civil War

  The planet is heating up, disrupting the weather patterns that sustain local agrarian economies, and creating winners and losers with all the discernment of a slot machine. These changes can bring about drastic upheaval in states with weak governance and predominantly rural populations. Yet their impact is subtle and ultimately obscured by a host […]

Interview: Gabriele Quattrochi on the EU Migrant Crisis

Geopoliticalmonitor sits down with Gabriele Quattrocchi, the Vice Director of Mediterranean Affairs, to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis in Europe. Mediterranean Affairs is a center for studies whose main goal is to provide analyses, reports, and dossiers on various issues of international policy, security, economic and social challenges concerning the Mediterranean area.   What are […]

For US and Russia, All Roads Lead to China

  Recently I attended an event where the speaker referred to the interplay between economics and security in Asia as being that of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  Dr. Jekyll represents the positive economic growth and interaction within the region, while Mr. Hyde represents the increasing security competition between the great powers of the area, […]

Backgrounder: Boko Haram

  Boko Haram’s brutal war against the Nigerian state is now in its sixth year. On the surface, the militant group appears to be losing the battle and significantly weakened after numerous setbacks throughout 2015.  The long-running Islamist insurgency, which began in 2009 in the northeast of the country, looks to finally be on the […]

Russian Economy Running Out of Firewalls

Russian Economy Running Out of Firewalls

  At a recent economic forum, Russia Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev noted that falling oil prices would soon force the government to adjust its central budget. He also warned that people must “prepare for the worst-case scenario.” Amid sub-$30 oil prices, Western sanctions, an expensive military deployment in Syria, and now an emerging market capital […]

Catalonia Independence Fight Enters a New Phase

Catalonia Independence Fight Enters a New Phase

  Catalan legislators finally agreed on a new president on January 10, just hours before a deadline that would have triggered a new round of regional elections. And no sooner had outgoing president Artur Mas handed over the medal of office to his anointed successor than the next phase of the independence struggle began. The very […]

GPM Global Forecast (01-18-16)

GPM Global Forecast (01-18-16)

  The GPM Global Forecast is a new bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It will provide analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. To ring in the New Year, the first two will be made available to all of our valued readers. Subsequent GPM Global Forecasts will […]

Dictators, Democracy, and Almighty Oil in the MENA Region

Dictators, Democracy, and Almighty Oil in the MENA Region

  95% of transport fuels in the world are derived from oil. This makes it hard to argue that renewable or other non-petroleum sources of fuel could cut into oil’s market share, at least in the near term. Transportation, and thus petroleum, is essential to growing economies like China and India and petroleum security will […]